10 gamification predictions for 2012 (from my skeptically optimistic perspective)

I recently came across a great post made by Mario Herger of Enterprise-Gamification, in which he makes seven predictions about gamification in 2012.* As far as articles go in this space, it’s refreshingly well referenced, and I find myself agreeing with most of his predictions. Do have a read, as I’ll be building upon Mario’s predictions in this post.**

MY THOUGHTS ON MARIO’S 7 PREDICTIONS

1. Gamification Platform Acquisitions
If you’ve ever played Osmos, you’ll understand what’s happening in the gamification industry. The bigger companies are gobbling up the littler ones with proven potential. While this might be a bad thing for boutique retailers, it’s probably a good thing for gamification, as it’ll reduce the noise created by all the half-cocked, me-too startups that spawned in 2010-11. Strong platforms will make identity of gamification clearer, and ensure that better research and case studies will emerge. Indeed, 2012 is going to be a good year for the gamification industry. 

2. Business Growth
When poster-child companies like Badgeville report 400% growth in 2011, it’s pretty clear that the market is valuing their services. What will be interesting to see is how well gamification businesses can retain clients and sustain high levels of value. In 2011 we saw many startups get terribly distracted by the “fruit” of games (like points, badges and leaderboards – which are really just tools that need to be used with the appropriate strategy), losing sight of the core premise and value proposition (genuine, sustained engagement). 

3. The ROI Holy Grail
It’s pretty clear that the existing data on the cost/benefit of gamification is rather limited at this stage. Of course, gamification (when done well) draws from the deep knowledge wells of psychology, motivation science and behavioural economics. The key challenge for the gamification industry is to show how gamified structures can continue to provide ROI beyond the initial novelty. This will mean providing more than simple fixes – companies will need ongoing and agile gamification of evolving processes.

4. More Sophistication
I’m so keen to see gamification find its identity and flourish within that niche (see point #9). Right now, gamification is trying to be everything to everyone. The examples of gamification we currently see range from apps to community dashboards to training facilitation games to HR policies (and so on) – which is far too broad to allow real depth in sophistication. Also it’s still unclear where gamification sits amongst concepts like “serious play” and “gameful design” (as noted in a previous article). Personally, I’d love it if gamification stuck to application and interface design (which are still critical, enduring strategic structures that guide user behaviour), while gameful design remains focussed on non-interface based productivity and motivation (capturing the spirit of a game with “people” – not “users”), and with serious play centred in the training and facilitation domains (where games are used to shift thinking, solve problems, develop strategy and instil experience). 

5. Critics
Many of the initial articles and claims in 2010 and 2011 were based on sloppy thinking and research (even from reputable brands like Saatchi&Saatchi). Couple this with gamification identity crisis, disturbing marketing claims (“add pleasure to your business”…?) and concerns about manipulation, it’s no wonder gamification has attracted criticism. But any scientist will tell you that this is a good thing. Even the less-than-constructive criticism is helpful, in that it forces gamification proponents to thoroughly consider the evidence, logic and reasoning behind their propositions. The critics are certainly not going to go away, but they will help catalyse the evolution and maturity of gamification industry. And of course, those who offer well considered, strategic and transparent interventions that deliver value will have nothing to worry about.

6. Workshops, Conferences and Books
I am what many would refer to as a “motivational speaker”. I bring my expertise in motivation design to give people new insight into making stuff happen and getting stuff done. Very often, this incorporates principles of game design. I like that there’ll be more of this as the market wakes up to the potential of gamification. But what we do not want to see is more noise enter the market, where ill-informed people simple parrot the latest findings without having invested the time and effort developing their own thought leadership. The existing platforms that rate books, along with the emerging platforms to rate "gurus" will become increasingly useful.

7. Gamification Gurus & Game Studios
To become a modern guru, one must lead with value through expertise. What is actually valued will always be determined by the market, however there are some interesting platforms that can help gauge one’s influence in this field. Take The Gamifcation Guru Leaderboard. Now, I’m not a huge fan leaderboards – they collapse wondrously complex and potentially collaborative phenomena into overly simple, competitive hierarchal scoring systems. There are too many variables for them to be useful (and this particular one has been too dependant upon Klout).

But I’ve recently noticed that Toby Beresford (the creator of the gamification guru leaderboard) is on a quest, actively evolving his leaderboard to become increasingly meaningful. While it’s a far cry from The Scientific Method of peer review, Toby has made a simple and effective game anyone “gamification guru” can play. It’s quite reasonable to predict that gamification platforms such as this will grow in sophistication and usefulness, with more video-based platforms soon to emerge.

MY 3 BONUS PREDICTIONS

8. Gameful design will continue to be awesome
The likes of Jane McGonigal, Aaron Dignan, the Baxters (and other champions you can watch here) tend to get drowned out amongst the gamification marketing zealots. But I predict we’ll see a resurgence in gameful design, particularly when gamification sorts out its identity issues. This’ll happen in the field of education and learning, and in domains not dependant upon establish interfaces (ie, more like Find the Future, Fun Theory, or games-based learning in schools).

9. Gamification will finally decide who it wants to be
One of the most important lessons for any consultant or business is to learn that you can’t be everything and do everything for everyone. Right now, gamification is on this unfortunate pathway – but I believe what it does best is within the domain of websites and interfaces (which are actually very critical to business strategy). Bunchball claims to have invented gamification, (pfft, I say they merely coined the definition for an existing phenomena), and their definition of gamification has generally prevailed. That is, "integrating game dynamics into your site, service, comunity, content or campaign, in order to drive participation. When you look at what Bunchball actually does, you’ll see a clearer picture of what gamification's really ought to be about.

I predict/hope that by the end of 2012 gamification will finally have a clear and sophisticated service niche to occupy.

10. A new philosophy of work will emerge 
This may be more wishful thinking on my behalf then any logical prediction, but I think people are going to pay more attention to the words we use, and the meanings we craft. I think there’s a huge ontological and existential case to make in support of gameful design – and it comes down to simple distinctions like James Carse’s assertion that life is an “infinite game” compared to the terribly common saying that life “is a game”. (If you can't see the linguistic distinction between the two phrases, I highly recommend James Carse's practical philosophy of finite and infinite games: a vision of play and possibility). When people realise that there are many finite games at play within this infinite game of life, they’ll also realise that it each game and experience will always comes down to good design and whatever facilitates progress.

(Well, that turned out far more rambly than I intended. Hopefully you’ll find a few nuggets in this post. Badgeville have also made a nifty set of 10 predictions that closely mirrors the predictions we have here. Worth checking out. Now, bring on 2012!).

* Thanks to Gerry Breislin for pointing me onto this (a thoroughly top bloke).
** I’d again like to point out that the first seven points of this article originated from Mario Herger’s article. I’m just throwing in my thoughts on top. And hey, isn’t Mario such a cool name for someone in this industry? He must get that all the time. Super.